A New Geospatial Index for Territorial Risk Stratification of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest During Heat Days

Area of Science:

• Environmental epidemiology
• Climate change and public health
• Cardiovascular health

Background:

• Global warming, a key effect of climate change, poses significant cardiovascular health risks, notably increasing Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA).
• Existing risk assessment models are complex, data-intensive, computationally demanding, and lack easy interpretation, limiting their practical application.
• There is a need for accessible, geospatial tools to stratify heat-related health risks and inform public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel Geospatial Heat-related Risk Index (GHRI) for territorial risk stratification.
• To aid in efficient Emergency Medical Services (EMS) resource planning in response to heat-related health risks.
• To analyze the geospatial relationship between heat exposure and OHCA risk.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Python for geospatial analysis.
• Mapped temperature data and OHCA records onto 96 Base Statistical Areas (BSAs) in Lombardy, Italy (2017-2021).
• Developed and applied the GHRI for risk assessment and territorial stratification.

Main Results:

• Heat exposure was generally found to increase OHCA risk across the study area.
• Identified specific geographical areas exhibiting higher or lower (protective/insignificant) risks.
• Demonstrated the utility of GIS-based environmental epidemiology for public health insights.

Conclusions:

• The GHRI provides a valuable tool for identifying at-risk territories for OHCA during heat events.
• Findings support enhanced EMS planning and resource allocation to improve patient survival.
• Emphasizes the importance of GIS-based environmental epidemiology in climate adaptation and healthcare policy.