On the Mathematical Modeling and Control of West Nile Virus in Highly Endemic Areas of Italy

We present a novel epidemiological model integrating larval and adult mosquito dynamics to evaluate open-loop control strategies for West Nile Virus (WNV). The model incorporates temperature and day-length dependencies, along with a novel function for non-diapausing mosquitoes, capturing key epidemiological trends in North-Eastern Italy. Simulations compare larvicide and adulticide interventions at varying doses, durations, and efficacy levels. Results show that while adulticides provide rapid but temporary suppression, sustained high-dose larvicide treatments improve long-term stability. An outbreak scenario highlights how a single high-efficacy adulticide application, followed by continuous larvicidal control, can mitigate an outbreak and restabilize the epidemic control in subsequent normal years. This study offers a first theoretical framework for highly endemic areas of North-Eastern Italy integrating larval and adult mosquito dynamics, supporting improved WNV outbreak prediction and control.