The decline of adolescent fertility in Brazil: empirical evidence and questions

Adolescent fertility in Brazil is influenced by sociodemographic and economic factors, making it necessary to stratify and monitor this indicator to assess the inclusion of adolescents in health, education, and social assistance programs. Using data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC), we calculated Age-Specific Fertility Rates by age group (10 to 14 years and 15 to 19 years), years of education (0 to 7 years, 8 to 11 years, and 12 or more), and Brazilian macroregions (North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South) for the period between 2010 and 2023, during which the country faced structural changes, including public health crises, economic crises, an increase in female education, and the rise of a conservative political wave. The results reveal an increase in adolescent fertility in the first half of the analyzed period (up to 2014/2015), followed by a decline in the second half, reaching 41.6 births per thousand women (15-19) and 2.1 births per thousand women (10-14) in 2023. There is significant regional diversity, with the North presenting higher rates despite the decline. Differences by educational level stand out, with a greater proportional decline among the less educated group.