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Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 40-64: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036
Lijuan Qin1, Wenqiang Ma1, Shiqi Cui1
1Department of Endocrinology, The Heji Affiliated Hospital of Changzhi Medical College, 271# East Taihang Street, Changzhi, Shanxi 046000, PR China.
Aims:
This study aims to assess the burden of type 1 diabetes (T1DM) among adults aged 40-64 years and to project future trends.
Methods:
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends from 2022 to 2036.
Results:
From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) of T1DM increased from 274 to 346 per 100,000 (AAPC: 0.75 %). The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) declined (AAPCs: -1.09 % and -0.34 %, respectively). Higher mortality was observed in low- and lower-middle SDI regions, while ASDR rose slightly in high-SDI countries. Projections to 2036 suggest continued increases in ASPR to 437 per 100,000. High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) remains the leading risk factor.
Conclusions:
The burden of T1DM in middle-aged adults is increasing, particularly in the 40-44 age group, with notable gender-specific disparities and higher mortality in low- and lower-middle-SDI countries. This highlights the urgent need for targeted prevention and intervention strategies.
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