Prediction of one-day creatinine excretion in Japanese schoolchildren based on anthropometric measurements

The creatinine (Cre) concentration in urine is used as an adjustment factor in chemical exposure and nutritional intake assessments. Because Cre excretion varies by sex, age, race, and anthropometric measurements such as height and weight, developing a method suitable for estimating one-day Cre excretion is necessary. Accordingly, this study aimed to develop a predictive equation for individual one-day Cre excretion in Japanese school children.

Urine samples were collected from 113 boys and 91 girls (aged 6-12 years) from the Aichi Prefecture, Japan, who were free from diseases affecting the renal, muscle, or nervous systems. Urinary concentrations and one-day excreted amounts of Cre were measured and compared with the values obtained using previously reported equations or a fixed value, totaling 11 methods. Subsequently, we developed a new equation using machine learning and multiple regression analyses. Additionally, the estimated one-day sodium excretion value calculated using this equation was compared with the measured value.

Among the 11 methods to predict Cre excretion, 7 overestimated-5 of which showed a positive trend bias with larger differences at higher average concentrations-and 3 underestimated-2 of which showed a negative trend bias with larger differences at lower average concentrations. A new machine learning model using sex, age, and body surface area (calculated from height and weight) yielded the most accurate prediction. Multiple regression analysis, which demonstrated the most accurate prediction, used sex, age, and body surface area as independent variables with or without the first void Cre concentration divided by urination duration from the previous night's urination to the first void. Moreover, the difference in one-day sodium excretion from first-void urine predicted using our newly developed Cre equation increased as the measured values increased.

Our study suggests that the estimation of one-day Cre excretion based on sex, age, and body surface area is most appropriate for Japanese schoolchildren, particularly in assessing their chemical exposure and dietary nutrient intake.

Trial registration is not applicable as this observational study did not involve any intervention or randomization requiring registration in a clinical trials registry.