Developing Trace: A Transdiagnostic Screening Tool for Early Detection of a Pluripotent at-Risk Mental State

Early identification of individuals at risk for developing mental health disorders is critical for timely intervention, reducing distress and improving outcomes. This study outlines the development and preliminary validation of 'TRACE', a short self-report measure designed to detect a pluripotent at-risk mental state (PARMS). The measure captures a range of subthreshold symptoms and traits associated with emerging manifestations of mania, psychosis and borderline personality disorder.

A sample of 2037 general-population adolescents and young adults (aged 14-36) completed TRACE questions and other psychometrics.

Exploratory Graph Analysis, undertaken on one-half of the dataset, generated a three-factor structure that was successfully replicated in the other half of the data, via confirmatory factor analysis. The final 26-item scale has acceptable model fit (with a scaled CFI of 0.93, TLI of 0.92, with acceptable-to-good error, RMSEA of 0.073) and good concurrent validity with other relevant psychometrics, such as neuroticism and loneliness (r = 0.29 and 0.43, respectively).

These findings suggest that the tool may be useful in identifying individuals with a broad, pluripotent vulnerability to develop severe mental health disorders. Future research will focus on validating the tool longitudinally and across diverse populations to assess its predictive utility and clinical value.