Long-Term All-Cause Mortality After Acute Pancreatitis: Median 7-Year Follow-Up

Acute pancreatitis is a life-threatening disease associated with significant in-hospital mortality, particularly when complications occur. However, there is little data for long-term all-cause mortality of acute pancreatitis and its relation to etiology. Thus, in this study, both short- and very long-term all-cause mortality after acute pancreatitis were sought.

Patients admitted with acute pancreatitis to the Bezmialem Vakıf University Hospital from 2012 to 2023 were retrospectively investigated. Demographic and laboratory values were obtained from hospital records. All-cause mortality was assessed using the national death notification system.

A total of 689 patients were included in the final analysis. The median follow-up duration was 86 months (range: 0-154 months). The mean age of the study population was 54.3 ± 16.9 years, and 384 individuals (55.7%) were women. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.8%, while 1-year all-cause mortality was 5.4%. Age, diabetes mellitus, and development of in-hospital complications were independent predictors of all-cause long-term mortality. In terms of etiology, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis had higher in-hospital mortality rates; however, over the long term, alcoholic pancreatitis yielded the worst prognosis. The first year after discharge showed the highest mortality that is most likely associated with in-hospital complications and disease severity.

This study sheds light on modern-era mortality rates of acute pancreatitis. Age, diabetes, and in-hospital complication development had a significant impact on long-term survival. Although underrepresented in this cohort, alcoholic pancreatitis had the highest long-term all-cause mortality and clearly represents an issue that deserves to be investigated.