Low physical activity-related disease burden, 1990-2021: assessment of global trends and social determinants based on...

Low physical activity (LPA) is associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular pathologies. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of several noncommunicable diseases relating to LPA.

Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data set, we modelled LPA-related disease burdens across 204 countries and territories, quantifying mortality counts, age-standardised mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for five noncommunicable diseases. We conducted multivariable stratification analyses to assess variations by gender, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. We used age-period-cohort modelling to project burden trajectories, while applying counterfactual decomposition frameworks to delineate synergistic interactions between LPA and risk factors.

We found that LPA accounted for 555 101 related deaths globally in 2021 across the five studied pathologies, mostly among individuals aged 60-94 years. Association between LPA-related disease burden and SDI followed a U-shaped distribution across regions and diseases. Among individuals aged 60-89 years, LPA-related deaths were significantly higher in women than in men, indicating a disproportionate burden on elderly females. Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) trends stabilised in low- and middle-SDI regions but declined significantly in high-SDI regions, underscoring global health disparities. From 2007 to 2011, LPA DALYs and mortality risk ratios for IHD, stroke, and lower extremity peripheral arterial disease declined from >1 to <1, whereas diabetes mellitus exhibited an opposite trend, highlighting LPA's persistent and significant impact on diabetes-related morbidity. Demographic shifts and epidemiological transitions were primary drivers of LPA-related disease burden across five pathologies. In high-SDI regions, epidemiological changes predominated, whereas population growth was a key factor in low- and middle-SDI regions. Synergistic interaction of these factors with LPA is projected to substantially amplify future disease burden.

Physical activity should be increased among elderly women to address health risks associated with LPA. Likewise, urgent public health interventions are needed for LPA-related diabetes. As IHD burden rises in low- and middle-SDI regions, vascular disease care strategies require optimisation. Moreover, high-SDI regions should strengthen nationwide physical activity promotion, while low- and middle-SDI areas must enhance healthcare infrastructure and manage population growth to reduce LPA-related disease burdens.