Climate-responsive cropland dynamics in Indus Basin: A comprehensive SDM assessment with intra-seasonal variability

Accurately predicting shifts in the potential distribution of major crops under various climate change scenarios is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring food security. This study examines the spatial and temporal shifts in the suitability of five major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize) based on phenological stage-specific climatic variables and crops occurrence points within the Indus Plain (part of the Indus Basin located in Pakistan), across three climate change scenarios: baseline (1985-2015), near-future (2025-2055), and far-future (2055-2085), using an ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach, integrated with CMIP6 climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the crop suitability is primarily influenced by elevation and phenology-specific climatic variables (precipitation, tropical nights, maximum and minimum temperature), which impact the suitability of rice, maize, wheat, cotton and sugarcane, at different phenological stages). Rice and cotton show a decline in suitability in the near term, followed by a late-future increase. In contrast, maize suitability is projected to remain stable (under SSP2) or increase (under SSP5) in the 2050s, followed by a decline in the 2080s. Spatially, highly suitable zones for rice and cotton are projected to shrink in Sindh and southern Punjab across all scenarios, while maize-suitability is projected to decline in Punjab but persist in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). A moderate increase in rice suitability is observed in northwestern Pakistan. In the Rabi season, wheat suitability is projected to decline in Sindh and southern Punjab, particularly under SSP5. Sugarcane shows a similar trend to cotton, with more pronounced impacts under SSP2. Overall, climate change is predicted to shift crop suitability across the Indus Plain, with regional variations depending on crop type and emission scenario. The risks to crop cultivation are expected to be significantly higher in the future due to elevated temperatures, heat waves, and altered precipitation patterns driven by climate change which can reshape crop suitability across the study region and consequently alter cropping patterns and water resource management in the Indus Plain.