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ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Remote Sensing

Background:

  • Vegetation resilience is crucial for ecosystem functions and carbon sinks.
  • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global weather and vegetation dynamics, but its effect on resilience is unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess global vegetation resilience to climate variability, focusing on ENSO's influence.
  • To analyze present-day (1981-2018) and future (2015-2100) vegetation resilience.
  • To investigate the teleconnection between ENSO and vegetation resilience.

Main Methods:

  • Lag-1 autocorrelation analysis of global Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series.
  • Global assessment of vegetation resilience sensitivity to ENSO.
  • Analysis of ENSO's influence via atmospheric synchrony and local climate anomalies.

Main Results:

  • ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 53% of the global vegetated area.
  • Impact pathways include large-scale atmospheric synchrony (15%), ENSO-driven local climate anomalies (51%), and both (34%).
  • Future projections indicate a 7-10% expansion of ENSO-driven climate anomaly impacts, affecting new regions like Eastern Siberia and northern North America.

Conclusions:

  • ENSO is a major factor influencing global vegetation resilience.
  • Climate change may alter the spatial extent and pathways of ENSO's influence on vegetation.
  • Findings inform targeted ecosystem restoration and climate-adaptive governance strategies.