Improving the performance of daily pan evaporation (Evp) prediction using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition combined with deep learning models
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.This study introduces a new method for predicting daily pan evaporation (Evp) using optimal input combinations and advanced AI models. The approach enhances water resource management, especially in arid regions.
Area Of Science
- Hydrology and Water Resources
- Artificial Intelligence in Environmental Science
- Climate Change Impact Assessment
Background
- Pan evaporation (Evp) is a critical factor in water resource management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
- Accurate Evp prediction is essential for efficient water allocation and minimizing water loss.
- Traditional Evp prediction models often struggle with the complex, non-linear dynamics of meteorological data.
Purpose Of The Study
- To develop and evaluate a novel approach for daily pan evaporation (Evp) prediction.
- To identify an optimal combination of input variables for Evp modeling.
- To enhance the accuracy of Evp prediction using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models.
Main Methods
- Input variable selection was performed using the Gamma Test and Genetic Algorithm (GTGA).
- Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) was employed to decompose input data (temperature, precipitation, past Evp) into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs).
- LSTM and CNN models were utilized with the decomposed IMFs as inputs for Evp prediction.
Main Results
- The CNN model achieved Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.33 mm, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.24 mm, and a Skill Index (SI) of 0.06.
- The LSTM model demonstrated superior performance with RMSE of 0.043 mm, MAE of 0.11 mm, and SI of 0.016.
- Decomposition into IMFs simplified data patterns, significantly improving the performance of both CNN and LSTM models.
Conclusions
- The proposed GTGA-EEMD-LSTM/CNN methodology offers a robust and accurate approach for daily pan evaporation prediction.
- This method provides valuable insights for water resource managers, aiding in water conservation strategies, especially in water-scarce environments.
- The approach is adaptable for Evp prediction in diverse geographical regions, contributing to better climate change adaptation.
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