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Multiple Genetic Impacts of Immigration Interact to Shape Local Population Persistence versus Extinction:

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    Increasing immigration may paradoxically raise extinction risk in fragmented habitats. This occurs because migration load from local adaptation can outweigh benefits of reduced inbreeding, impacting small wild populations.

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    Area of Science:

    • Population Genetics
    • Conservation Biology
    • Evolutionary Ecology

    Background:

    • Predicting immigration's impact on extinction in fragmented habitats is challenging.
    • Requires simultaneous modeling of genetic factors: inbreeding depression, adaptive microevolution, and migration load.
    • Few studies address these factors in small wild populations with regular immigration.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To quantify and model multiple genetic effects of immigration on extinction probability.
    • To investigate the interplay of inbreeding, adaptive microevolution, and migration load.
    • To assess outcomes for small wild populations experiencing natural immigration.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized quantitative genetic individual-based simulations.
    • Parameterized models with long-term data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia).
    • Simulated scenarios with varying immigration rates.

    Main Results:

    • Increased immigration slightly raised short-term extinction probability, contrary to expectations.
    • Migration load counteracted adaptive microevolution, especially with heterosis-enhanced introgression.
    • Inbreeding depression was reduced, but migration load dominated.
    • Commonly observed outcomes included extinction vortices, migrational meltdown, or persistence via microevolution.

    Conclusions:

    • Altering dispersal rates may not predictably affect short-term population persistence.
    • Populations exist precariously between persistence and genetically induced extinction.
    • Highlights complex eco-evolutionary dynamics in fragmented populations.