A machine learning model for predicting oligoclonal band positivity using routine cerebrospinal fluid and serum
Hazar Gözgöz1, Oğuzhan Orhan2, Başak Akan Konuk3
1Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey.
Objective:
To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting oligoclonal band (OCB) positivity using routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum biochemical markers to improve the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of assessing intrathecal immunoglobulin G (IgG) synthesis.
Methods:
In this retrospective study (n = 1709), an ensemble model was developed using 8 refined CSF and serum parameters. Combining optimized CatBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM classifiers, the model was trained and evaluated using a 2-phase workflow, including 5-fold cross-validation and validation on independent internal (n = 342) and external (n = 49) cohorts.
Results:
The developed ensemble model achieved a receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.902 on the internal test set, significantly outperforming the conventional IgG index (ROC-AUC, 0.795). At its optimal threshold, the model demonstrated an accuracy of 0.830, with a sensitivity of 0.714 and a specificity of 0.916. On the external validation cohort, it achieved 90% accuracy and 96% sensitivity.
Conclusions:
A novel machine learning ensemble model accurately predicts OCB positivity using routine laboratory data and demonstrates superior performance compared with the IgG index. This approach represents a significant step in applying artificial intelligence in laboratory medicine, with the potential to enhance diagnostic efficiency. Prospective, multicenter validation is essential for broader clinical implementation.
