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Nursing shortages and patient outcomes
Elaine Kelly1, Carol Propper2, Ben Zaranko3
1Health Foundation and Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, UK.
Journal of Health Economics
|December 6, 2025
Summary
Nurse shortages, particularly of degree-qualified nurses, significantly increase patient mortality by 10%. Hospital experience for nurses reduces death odds, especially for less severe cases like sepsis.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare Management
- Nursing Economics
- Patient Safety
Background:
- Nurse shortages are a growing concern in healthcare systems globally.
- The impact of nursing staff levels on patient outcomes requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the effect of nurse shortages on inpatient mortality.
- To analyze the differential impact of shortages based on nurse qualifications and patient severity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized novel high-frequency data to analyze the relationship between nursing staff absence and patient mortality.
- Differentiated analysis based on nurse qualification levels (degree-qualified vs. nursing assistants).
Main Results:
- Shortages of degree-qualified nurses increase inpatient mortality odds by approximately 10%.
- No significant mortality impact was found from shortages of nursing assistants.
- Increased firm-specific experience for qualified nurses correlates with reduced mortality.
- Adverse effects are more pronounced in patients with lower clinical severity, especially sepsis.
Conclusions:
- The qualification and experience of nursing staff are critical determinants of patient survival.
- Targeted staffing of degree-qualified nurses is essential for mitigating mortality risks.
- Hospital policies should focus on retaining experienced, qualified nurses to improve patient safety.
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