Shifting paradigms: towards dynamic approaches to sustain Anthropocene lake ecosystems

Protecting, managing, and restoring freshwater ecosystems in the Anthropocene is essential to tackling the triple planetary crises of biodiversity loss, pollution, and climate change. However, conventional restoration frameworks often struggle to account for the rapid and nonlinear dynamics that characterize ecological transitions today. In this review, we synthesize emerging insights from freshwater restoration research and propose a novel bivariate framework that integrates both the rate and magnitude of change from a long-term, evolutionary perspective. By examining multidecadal to centennial trajectories and dynamics using paleoenvironmental records, our framework offers a more nuanced classification of ecosystem status along a degradation continuum. Specifically, we categorize four ecosystem types based on their state (from minimally disturbed to highly degraded) and their rate of change (from slow to fast). Each type is associated with distinct system dynamics, restoration potentials, and strategic considerations. To demonstrate practical utility, we apply the framework to a representative Anthropocene lake undergoing severe ecological degradation. While centered on freshwater systems, the framework offers broader relevance for understanding and guiding restoration in other ecosystem types. We conclude by identifying key knowledge gaps and future research directions needed to enhance ecosystem resilience and inform adaptive management in a rapidly changing world.