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Climate models struggle to replicate the observed strengthening of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient over 150 years. Many models show a weakening trend, indicating potential issues in simulating Pacific dynamics.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • The tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient has strengthened over the past 150 years.
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models often simulate a weakening of this gradient.
  • This discrepancy fuels debate on model accuracy and the nature of observed SST trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To comprehensively assess long-term trends in the observed and modeled tropical Pacific SST gradient.
  • To evaluate the ability of CMIP6 models to capture observed gradient dynamics.
  • To investigate whether observed strengthening is a forced response and how models represent it.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of gradient trends (≥20 years) from 1870-2024.
  • Utilized five observational datasets and 14 CMIP6 large ensembles.
  • Compared model-simulated trends against observational data.

Main Results:

  • CMIP6 models largely fail to match observed long-term tropical Pacific SST gradient trends, particularly recent ones.
  • Models matching observed trends often rely on excessive internal variability to mask a weakening forced response.
  • Observed gradient trends exhibit an accelerating strengthening rate over time, a forced response absent in most models.

Conclusions:

  • Significant discrepancies exist between observed and CMIP6 modeled tropical Pacific SST gradient trends.
  • Current climate models may not accurately represent the dynamics driving the observed strengthening gradient.
  • The accelerating strengthening of the observed gradient suggests a robust forced response not captured by most simulations.