The public health impact of extending the catch-up nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccination program to 2028 in...

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases have risen in Japan since recommendations for the HPV vaccine were suspended in 2013. This study evaluated the public health benefit of extending the current 3-year nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) catch-up vaccination program for females 17-26 years of age to 6 years.

A dynamic transmission model calibrated to Japanese specific demographic and epidemiological data compared the impact of different 9vHPV vaccination scenarios on female and male HPV-related diseases over a 100-year time horizon. The base-case analysis compared the routine vaccination in combination with the current 3-year catch-up program for females 17-26 years of age from 2022 to 2025 (status quo) to the routine vaccination in combination with an extended 6-year program from 2022 to 2028 (6-year catch-up scenario) for Japan.

HPV-related disease incidence with the 6-year catch-up scenario decreased further than the status quo over 100 years. Extending catch-up vaccinations from three to six years in combination with routine vaccination prevented an additional 413,454 HPV-related disease cases and 7,184 deaths for both sexes. Anogenital warts had the highest number of averted cases (361,020 cases) and males (229,867 cases) had more total HPV-related disease cases averted than females (183,586 cases).

Routine vaccination in combination with an extension of the catch-up HPV vaccination strategy for females 17-26 years of age from three to six years may expedite the decrease of morbidity and mortality due to HPV-related diseases in Japan.