Quantifying U.S. life expectancy gains from reductions in Black-White mortality disparities: A simulation study

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Disparities Research

Background:

• Significant disparities in life expectancy (LE) persist between Black and White Americans.
• Excess mortality risk among Black Americans contributes to these life expectancy gaps.
• Addressing these inequities is crucial for improving overall population health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate the impact of reducing excess mortality risk for Black Americans on overall life expectancy.
• To quantify potential life expectancy gains by varying levels of excess risk reduction.
• To identify specific age groups where reducing mortality disparities would yield the most significant life expectancy improvements.

Main Methods:

• Counterfactual simulations were used to model reductions in the Black-White mortality gap.
• Excess relative risk was scaled down across all age groups.
• Life expectancy was calculated overall and disaggregated by age categories: children (0-17), young adults (18-29), middle-aged adults (30-49), older adults (50-64), and seniors (65+).

Main Results:

• Each 25% reduction in excess mortality risk correlated with incremental increases in life expectancy.
• Eliminating the excess risk gap could increase overall life expectancy by 0.48 years for females and 0.77 years for males.
• The most substantial life expectancy gains were observed when narrowing mortality gaps in middle-aged (30-49) and older adult (50-64) populations.

Conclusions:

• Reducing racial inequities in mortality, particularly excess risks for Black Americans, can lead to meaningful improvements in national life expectancy.
• Targeted interventions in specific age groups can maximize life expectancy gains.
• This study provides quantitative evidence supporting the need to address racial disparities in mortality.