Quantifying U.S. life expectancy gains from reductions in Black-White mortality disparities: A simulation study

Substantial gaps remain in life expectancy (LE) between Black and White Americans. The present study aimed to simulate hypothetical reductions in excess mortality risk for Black Americans across all ages; to identify the extent to which LE can improve as one varies the excess risk reduction level; and to provide quantitative estimates of potential LE gains if racial disparities in mortality were reduced in particular age groups.

I simulated counterfactual reductions in the Black-White mortality gap by scaling down the excess relative risk across all ages. I further calculated the overall LE weighted according to population shares of all major racial/ethnic groups, and then disaggregated these impacts by age group-children (0-17 years), young adults (18-29 years), middle-aged adults (30-49 years), older adults (50-64 years), and seniors (65+ years).

Each successive 25% reduction in excess mortality risk was associated with an incremental improvement in LE, and closing the excess risk gap entirely was projected to improve overall LE by 0.48 years in females and 0.77 years in males. In both sexes, there was a striking pattern of the biggest LE gains being observed with narrowing the excess mortality gaps in middle-aged adult (30-49 years) and older adult (50-64 years) populations.

Overall, this study provides new quantitative evidence that addressing racial inequities in mortality-in particular the excess risks faced by Black Americans-could yield meaningful gains in national life expectancy.