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Updated: Jan 9, 2026
Vein Interposition Model: A Suitable Model to Study Bypass Graft Patency
Published on: January 15, 2017
Construction of risk factors and prediction model for arteriovenous graft thrombosis
1Department of Blood Purification Center, The First People's Hospital of Lin'an District, Hangzhou, 360, Yikang Road, Jinnan Street, Lin'an District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province 311300, China.
Objective:
This study aims to identify risk factors for thrombosis in arteriovenous grafts and construct a predictive model to assess thrombosis risk in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD).
Methods:
A total of 160 MHD patients with arteriovenous graft were included and divided into a thrombosis group (n=39) and a control group (n=121). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram prediction model was developed using R software, and its predictive performance was evaluated through calibration curves and C-index validation.
Results:
Multivariate analysis identified diabetes, hypotension during dialysis, arteriovenous graft stenosis, compression hemostasis>30min, and calcium-phosphorus product>55mg2/dL2 as independent risk factors for arteriovenous graft thrombosis. The nomogram model demonstrated good predictive accuracy, with an initial C-index of 0.753 and a validated C-index of 0.735.
Conclusion:
The established nomogram effectively predicts arteriovenous graft thrombosis risk, aiding early identification and targeted intervention for high-risk patients.
