Future projections of European maize yields using AquaCrop with an adaptive growing season
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Future European maize production may see shifts due to climate change, but improved fertility and irrigation offer significant yield gains. Optimizing these practices is key for securing crop yields in a changing climate.
Area Of Science
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Impact Assessment
- Crop Modeling
Background
- Maize production is vital globally, yet future impacts of climate change and farming practices on European yields are not fully understood.
- Existing climate impact assessments often use fixed crop growing cycles, which may not accurately reflect acclimatization to changing conditions.
Purpose Of The Study
- To estimate the impact of climate conditions and farmer practices (fertility management, irrigation) on future maize crop production in Europe.
- To analyze changes in yields, yield gaps, growing cycles, and water productivity under various climate scenarios for baseline and near-future periods.
Main Methods
- Utilized the AquaCrop model (v7.2) in a spatially distributed setup, driven by meteorological data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (simulation round 3).
- Developed a generic maize crop simulation with temperature-dependent sowing dates and growing stages to allow for acclimatization, contrasting with previous assessments.
Main Results
- Warmer climates are projected to advance sowing dates and shorten growing seasons, resulting in relatively stable yields and yield gaps for rainfed maize.
- Significant yield increases are possible by alleviating fertility stress (1.5 ton/ha average, mainly in the north) and optimizing irrigation in southern regions (2 ton/ha gain).
- Profitable rainfed maize cultivation areas are expected to shift northward and expand, while irrigated maize in the south shows stable yields and enhanced water productivity.
Conclusions
- Climate change alone has a marginal impact on near-future European maize yields, but farmer practices are critical for enhancing production.
- Alleviating fertility limitations and optimizing irrigation present substantial opportunities to boost maize yields and water productivity across Europe.
- Strategic shifts in cultivation areas and optimized management are essential for securing maize crop production in response to climate change.
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