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Sex Differences in the Back-Squat One-Repetition Maximum Estimation Accuracy Relying on the Average Optimal Minimum
Afonso Fitas1,2, Miguel Gomes1,2, Paulo Santos1,2
1Neuromuscular Research Lab, Faculdade de Motricidade Humana, Universidade de Lisboa, Cruz Quebrada, Dafundo, Portugal.
Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research
|December 8, 2025
Summary
The average optimal minimum velocity threshold improves one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictions in female athletes. However, wide limits of agreement suggest potential inaccuracies for practical strength and conditioning applications.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Biomechanics
Background:
- One-repetition maximum (1RM) prediction using the load-velocity relationship (LVR) is crucial in strength and conditioning.
- The average optimal minimum velocity threshold (MVT) was proposed to improve 1RM estimation, but its accuracy in females is unknown.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the accuracy of 1RM estimation in female subjects using the average optimal MVT compared to the average actual MVT.
- To analyze sex differences in 1RM estimation accuracy using these methods.
Main Methods:
- Collected individual LVRs for the Smith machine pause back squat in 16 males and 16 females.
- Estimated 1RM using sex-specific average actual MVTs and average optimal MVTs.
- Assessed prediction accuracy via absolute percentage error and Bland-Altman plots with cross-validation.
Main Results:
- Relative 1RM, LVR slope, and optimal MVT were similar between sexes.
- In females, average optimal MVT reduced absolute percentage error from 8.7% to 6.4% compared to average actual MVT.
- Wide limits of agreement (approx. 15 kg for males, 10 kg for females) were observed for both methods.
Conclusions:
- The average optimal MVT enhances 1RM estimation accuracy in female athletes.
- Despite improvements, the wide limits of agreement may limit the practical applicability of these 1RM estimation methods.
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