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Contrasting pre-vaccine COVID-19 waves in Italy through functional data analysis
Tobia Boschi1, Jacopo Di Iorio2, Lorenzo Testa3,4
1IBM Research Europe, Dublin, Ireland.
Scientific Reports
|December 8, 2025
Summary
This study on early COVID-19 mortality in Italy found that timely restrictions and reduced mobility significantly curbed deaths. The first wave saw concentrated peaks, while the second was more widespread, highlighting the impact of mobility controls.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Data Science
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to public health globally.
- Understanding mortality patterns during the initial waves is crucial for effective pandemic response.
- Italy experienced significant mortality during the first two pre-vaccine waves of COVID-19.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze and compare mortality patterns across Italian provinces during the first two pre-vaccine COVID-19 waves.
- To investigate the influence of mobility, government restrictions, and socio-demographic factors on mortality.
- To identify distinct mortality patterns associated with different pandemic phases.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Functional Data Analysis (FDA) tools to analyze provincial mortality data.
- Employed smoothing splines and landmark registration for processing mortality and Google mobility data.
- Applied clustering techniques to identify mortality patterns and regression models to assess influencing factors.
Main Results:
- Observed significant differences between the two waves: Wave 1 had higher, concentrated mortality peaks, while Wave 2 was more widespread and asynchronous.
- Demonstrated the effectiveness of timely government restrictions in reducing mortality.
- Found a strong positive association between local mobility and mortality in both pre-vaccine waves.
Conclusions:
- Timely implementation of restrictions and mobility controls played a vital role in mitigating COVID-19 mortality.
- Mortality patterns evolved significantly between the first and second pre-vaccine waves.
- Findings underscore the importance of data-driven public health interventions during pandemics, despite potential data limitations.
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