Does democratic backsliding undermine climate policy? No evidence (yet)

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• Environmental Policy
• Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

• Liberal democracies typically implement stricter climate policies and achieve greater emissions reductions compared to autocracies.
• Democratic backsliding and autocratization are increasing global trends.
• A common assumption is that these political shifts negatively affect climate mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether democratic backsliding has a generally negative effect on climate change mitigation efforts.
• To empirically test the widely held presumption linking political regime changes to climate policy effectiveness.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the most current and comprehensive data available on political regimes and climate policies.
• Employed various estimation strategies specifically designed for causal inference.
• Analyzed the relationship between democratic backsliding and climate mitigation outcomes.

Main Results:

• No systematic evidence was found to support the presumption that democratic backsliding negatively impacts climate change mitigation.
• The study's findings challenge the conventional wisdom linking political regime type shifts to reduced climate action.

Conclusions:

• The current trend of democratic backsliding does not, on its own, appear to systematically undermine global climate change mitigation efforts.
• Further research is needed to determine if specific policy reversals, such as those observed in the US, could initiate a broader negative trend.
• The long-term impact of autocratization on international climate policy remains an open question requiring ongoing investigation.