The Role of Hydrometeorological Factors in Leptospirosis Transmission in Central Java, Indonesia

This study investigates the relationship between hydrometeorological factors and leptospirosis cases in Central Java to elucidate disease spread patterns.

An ecological study design was utilized, incorporating spatial elements by integrating geographic information systems (GIS) with statistical techniques. The analysis included data on temperature, humidity, rainfall, solar radiation, flooding, and monthly leptospirosis cases recorded from 2018 to 2022. Data sources comprised the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, and the Central Java Provincial Water Resources Management Center. The study employed correlation tests, multiple linear regression, and spatial data visualization.

Correlation analysis indicated that monthly leptospirosis cases were significantly and positively correlated with minimum temperature (r=0.423; p=0.001), humidity (r=0.589; p<0.001), and rainfall (r=0.413; p=0.001). In contrast, maximum temperature (r=-0.355; p=0.005) and solar radiation (r=-0.431; p=0.001) showed significant negative correlations. Subsequent multiple linear regression showed that higher monthly leptospirosis was associated with higher humidity.

The findings offer essential insights for developing a comprehensive, science-based leptospirosis management strategy. A recommended approach is to establish a spatial monitoring system aimed at identifying high-risk areas, especially those with increased humidity and frequent flooding.