Predicting Preoperative Deep Vein Thrombosis in Elderly Hip Fracture Patients Using an Interpretable Machine Learning
Qi Cheng1,2, Yuan Liu1, Pengfei Zhu1
1Department of Orthopedics, Jingjiang People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Taizhou, People's Republic of China.
International Journal of General Medicine
|December 10, 2025
Summary
This study developed an interpretable machine learning model to predict deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk in elderly hip fracture patients. The XGBoost model accurately identified high-risk individuals, aiding timely interventions.
Area of Science:
- Medical Informatics
- Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Geriatric Medicine
Background:
- Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a common complication in elderly hip fracture patients.
- Accurate preoperative risk assessment is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an interpretable machine learning model for predicting preoperative DVT risk.
- To identify key factors influencing DVT risk using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).
Main Methods:
- Utilized a dataset of 976 elderly hip fracture patients.
- Employed machine learning algorithms including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost).
- Applied SHAP for model interpretability and feature importance analysis.
Main Results:
- The XGBoost model achieved high predictive performance (AUC 0.975).
- Eight key variables were identified as significant predictors of DVT.
- SHAP analysis provided insights into feature contributions and individual predictions.
Conclusions:
- Interpretable predictive models can enhance DVT risk assessment in this patient group.
- The developed model assists physicians in making informed clinical decisions.
Related Concept Videos
01:29Venous Thrombosis III: Interprofessional Care
262
Venous thrombosis requires effective prevention and treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes and reduce potential complications.Prevention StrategiesHealthcare providers must prioritize preventing venous thromboembolism (VTE) for all adult patients upon admission. Interventions depend on bleeding and thrombosis risk, medical history, current medications, diagnoses, planned procedures, and patient preferences. Patients on bed rest should change positions every two hours and, if not...
262
01:30Venous Thrombosis IV: Nursing Management
182
Nursing management begins with a thorough assessment of the patient's health history. Key factors include trauma to veins, peripherally inserted central catheters, varicose veins, recent pregnancy or childbirth, surgery, bacteremia, prolonged bed rest, atrial fibrillation, COPD, heart failure, cancer, coagulation disorders, myocardial infarction, spinal cord injury, stroke, prolonged travel, recent bone fractures, and dehydration. Review medication intake, particularly oral contraceptives,...
182
01:20Venous Thrombosis II: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnostic Studies
270
The key difference between Superficial Vein Thrombosis (SVT) and Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) lies in their location and severity.Clinical ManifestationsSVT typically presents with localized pain, tenderness, and redness along the course of a superficial vein, often accompanied by a palpable, cord-like structure under the skin. This condition is usually less dangerous than DVT but can be uncomfortable and may lead to complications such as cellulitis or, rarely, a clot extension into the deep...
270