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Prioritizing interventions for echinococcosis prevention in China: a population attributable fraction analysis
Shuaiming Xu1, Quzhen Danzeng2, Bing Guo1,3
1West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, China.
The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific
|December 10, 2025
Summary
Human echinococcosis in China can be reduced by improving drinking water safety and dog management. Interventions should prioritize high-incidence regions like Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Sichuan for maximum public health impact.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- One Health
Background:
- Human echinococcosis remains a significant public health issue in China despite control efforts.
- Identifying modifiable risk factors is crucial for targeted individual-level interventions.
- This study quantifies potential health gains from interventions on risk factors to guide control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the potential health gains from hypothetical interventions on modifiable risk factors for human echinococcosis in China.
- To inform effective public health control strategies by identifying priority targets for intervention.
- To estimate the preventable burden of echinococcosis attributable to modifiable risk factors.
Main Methods:
- Data on modifiable risk factors and echinococcosis incidence (2007-2020) were collected and aggregated.
- A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to pool effect estimates for risk factors and echinococcosis subtypes (cystic echinococcosis [CE] and alveolar echinococcosis [AE]).
- Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to estimate the preventable burden of echinococcosis cases.
Main Results:
- Twelve risk factors were identified, with PAFs ranging from 2.2% to 41.2%.
- Surface water for drinking (41.2%) and stray dogs (34.9%) had the highest PAFs, contributing to 1437 and 1216 preventable annual cases, respectively.
- Simultaneous elimination of stray dogs and unsafe drinking water sources showed the highest potential impact, particularly in Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Sichuan provinces.
Conclusions:
- Interventions focusing on drinking water safety and responsible dog management can significantly reduce echinococcosis incidence in China.
- Public health initiatives should prioritize high-prevalence regions like Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province to maximize effectiveness.
- Targeting these key risk factors and regions offers a viable strategy for controlling human echinococcosis.
Keywords:
Bayesian hierarchical modelEchinococcosisModifiable risk factorsNeglected tropical diseasesParasitic infectionsPopulation attributable fractionPreventable disease burdenPublic health interventionMore Related Videos
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