A multiscale risk operation and decision making model for inter-basin water diversion project under climate...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Resource Management
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Inter-basin water diversion projects are vital for balancing water supply and demand.
• Climate variability and hydrological fluctuations introduce significant operational uncertainties.
• Existing models often fail to adequately address these dynamic uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a multi-objective risk operation and decision-making model for inter-basin water diversion projects.
• To minimize water shortage and transfer costs while accounting for forecast uncertainties.
• To support adaptive, risk-informed decision-making in water resource management.

Main Methods:

• Formulation of a multi-objective risk operation model minimizing water shortage and transfer costs.
• Application of the Multi-Objective Mantis Search Algorithm (MOMSA) for generating non-dominated solutions.
• Integration of KEMIRA, Best-Worst Method (BWM), and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for risk decision-making.

Main Results:

• Non-dominated solutions effectively cover the deterministic solution space under uncertainty.
• A 1.92% reduction in average water shortage rate was observed compared to deterministic models.
• Average transfer costs increased by CNY 63,300, reflecting the cost of managing uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• The proposed risk-informed framework enhances operational efficiency and resilience of water diversion projects.
• The model effectively captures multiscale risks, crucial for managing water resources under climate variability.
• Adaptive, risk-informed decision-making is essential for sustainable inter-basin water transfer operations.