Impact of Climate Change on the Invasion of Mikania micrantha Kunth in China: Predicting Future Distribution Using...

Invasive alien species pose escalating threats to global biodiversity and ecosystems, which may be exacerbated by climate change, potentially leading to range expansions and intensified impacts. In China, Mikania micrantha Kunth, a fast-growing tropical vine listed among the world's 100 worst invasive species, has proliferated since its introduction in the mid-20th century, causing severe ecological damage through the smothering of vegetation, suppression of allelopathy, and economic losses in agriculture and forestry. This study aimed to predict its current and future distributions to guide management. Using 205 stringently filtered occurrence records from databases, surveys, and literature, combined with bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and MaxEnt modeling-optimized via ENMeval and evaluated by AUC (>0.97)-projected habitats under current (1970-2000) conditions and future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s via the BCC-CSM2-HR model. Temperature factors dominated predictions, with current excellent suitability (3.6 × 10⁴ km²) concentrated in Hainan and southern Guangdong, expanding to good and moderate zones in Guangxi, Fujian, and Yunnan. Future averages showed expansions in excellent (21.3%), good (10.0%), and moderate (14.0%) habitats, with some northward shifts into Jiangxi and Hunan under higher emissions. In situ augmentation of habitat suitability and spatial containment overshadows the northward range expansion. The high-emission scenario is projected to lead to temperature overshoots, which will dampen habitat suitability. The findings underscore M. micrantha's resilience to warming, necessitating integrated strategies such as guarding critical biodiversity sites, early detection, biocontrol, and habitat restoration to mitigate risks in both core and emerging zones.