Time to Death and Nursing Home Admission in Older Adults with Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Hip fractures in older adults are sentinel events linked to high mortality and functional decline. Few studies have quantified long-term survival probabilities, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and risks of new nursing home admission alongside patient-related predictors. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 355 patients aged ≥ 60 years who underwent hip fracture surgery at a general hospital in Japan (2020-2024). Primary outcomes were mortality and new nursing home admission. Survival probabilities and remaining life expectancy were estimated, and SMRs were calculated using age- and sex-matched national data. Cox regression identified independent predictors. Results: Mean age was 84 years; 76% were female. Mortality probabilities at 1, 2, and 3 years were 23%, 41%, and 60%, respectively; SMRs consistently exceeded 9. Median remaining life expectancy was 260 days. New nursing home admissions occurred in 42%, with cumulative probabilities of 16%, 27%, and 35% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively, showing a rapid rise within 9 months. Independent predictors of mortality were delayed surgery, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, and low Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index. Older age and failure to regain ambulatory ability at 3 months predicted institutionalization. Conclusions: Older adults with hip fractures face persistently high mortality and institutionalization risks, comparable to advanced malignancies or neurodegenerative diseases. Surgical timing, comorbidities, nutrition, and functional recovery critically influence prognosis and should guide perioperative care and discharge planning.