Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil's Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Climate change impacts Brazilian agriculture unevenly. Corn and beans are vulnerable to rainfall changes, while some perennial crops adapt to warming temperatures, necessitating tailored bioeconomy strategies.
Area Of Science
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Bioeconomy
Background
- Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural production, particularly in the context of global change and the transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy.
- Understanding the intricate relationship between climate variables and crop yields is crucial for developing resilient agricultural systems.
Purpose Of The Study
- To analyze historical climate and agricultural production data (1994-2023) in northern Brazil.
- To investigate the influence of rainfall and maximum temperature on the productivity of various annual and perennial crops.
- To identify crop-specific adaptive strategies for a changing climate within a bioeconomy framework.
Main Methods
- Time series analysis of agricultural productivity and harvested area for corn, cassava, beans, pineapple, cocoa, annatto, avocado, and guava.
- Application of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to assess the stationarity of climate and production series.
- Utilization of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to discern correlation patterns between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature) and crop production.
Main Results
- Annual precipitation series were found to be stationary, while maximum temperature series exhibited non-stationarity, indicating a warming trend.
- Bean productivity was stationary, but at low levels; corn, cassava, and cocoa showed non-stationary behavior, influenced by technology and climate.
- PCA revealed diverse crop responses: corn favored temperature (with stagnation signs), cassava and beans relied on precipitation (vulnerable to drought), avocado and guava favored temperature, annatto and pineapple depended on rainfall, and cocoa showed balanced correlation.
Conclusions
- Climate impacts on agriculture in northern Brazil are heterogeneous, demanding specific adaptive strategies for different crops.
- Promoting productive diversification, technological innovation, and public policies is essential for climate resilience and sustainable low-carbon value chains in the bioeconomy.
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