Can a TB outbreak be detected by reviewing the surveillance data?

To retrospectively review TB surveillance data to detect whether there was a possible outbreak in the area and verify it in the city of Sapporo, a megalopolis with a low burden of TB.

A cohort study in which TB notification rates of wards each year were compared with those for the rest of the city. If the rate was significantly higher, the notification rates by sex and age groups were further compared with those of the rest of the city.

Six possible TB outbreaks were found in six wards: Chuo in 2007, Atsubetsu in 2010, Higashi in 2014, Shiroishi in 2015, Nishi in 2017, and Minami in 2018. Further analysis found that the notification rates were significantly higher in specific sex and age groups than those of the rest of the city. The city's outbreak records showed three actual outbreaks (one in Atsubetsu ward in 2010 and two in Higashi in 2014) corresponding to two events found in our analysis.

Our study shows that retrospectively reviewing TB surveillance data could detect possible outbreaks. Local health offices and prefectures of Japan should monitor their TB surveillance data at least monthly to detect possible outbreaks and take appropriate actions if needed.