Long-term spatial-temporal evolution of hepatitis C burden in eastern China: a retrospective case analysis from Wuxi...

Hepatitis C is an inflammation of the liver caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and represents a major public health challenge. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hepatitis C in Wuxi City, a developed and low-epidemic area of eastern China, from 2007 to 2021.

Data were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, while genotype information was derived from a retrospective survey. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS software to identify characteristic differences. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to examine long-term temporal trends, and the concentration degree was used to quantify seasonal intensity. Kernel density and hotspot analyses were applied to identify spatial distribution patterns and clusters.

A total of 4,771 cases were recorded, with an average annual incidence rate of 5.44 per 100,000 population. The incidence was significantly higher in males than in females (odds ratio = 1.49, χ ² = 144.58, p < 0.05). The incidence of HCV infection increased progressively with age. Genotype 1b (74.5%) was the most prevalent, followed by genotype 3 (15.2%), with subtype 3b being dominant. Sex and age were significantly associated with variations in genotype distribution (both p < 0.001). During the study period, the incidence rate increased from 2.18 to 9.15 per 100,000 population, with an average annual percentage change of 10.50% (95% confidence interval: 6.42-14.74%). No distinct seasonal pattern was observed, with a concentration degree (M) of 0.095. Spatially, HCV cases were mainly concentrated in the city center, and the hotspot areas showed little change across the three study periods.

The incidence of HCV in Wuxi City has increased steadily from 2007 to 2021, with genotypes 1b and 3 being predominant. Spatial clustering was mainly concentrated in urban centers, highlighting the need for targeted prevention and control strategies to support the goal of eliminating HCV as a public health threat by 2030.