Comparison of HIV/AIDS death estimates for 2019 between GBD 2019 and WHO mortality databases

HIV/AIDS death estimates serve as crucial indicators for monitoring the status of the epidemic and the progress of intervention projects. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database offer open-access statistics on a global scale. This study compared HIV/AIDS death estimates between these two databases and explored the potential sources of discrepancies.

HIV/AIDS death counts and mortality rates (per 100,000 population) for 2019 were extracted from both databases and categorized based on age, sex, and country. The absolute and standardized differences between the GBD and WHO estimates were analyzed across demographic groups and countries. Spearman's correlation coefficients and regression plots were used to assess consistency and visualize the associations.

Among the 78 countries with overlapping data, GBD estimated that there were 108,668 deaths due to HIV/AIDS, while the WHO reported 48,754 deaths, yielding a difference of 59,914 deaths (76.1% of the mean estimate). Despite the overall strong correlations between the two reports (r > 0.80, p < 0.05), notable discrepancies were observed in male individuals, the 15-54 age group, and in several countries, including Thailand (23,563), Brazil (6,063), the Philippines (4,658), Ukraine (4,238), Peru (2,617), and the United States (2,325).

Substantial differences in HIV/AIDS death estimates continue to exist in a few countries, likely due to variations in vital registration data quality, ICD coding practices, and estimation methodologies between databases. These findings highlight the need to strengthen mortality data systems and improve methodological transparency to enhance global HIV/AIDS mortality surveillance.