Avoidable hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in children under five years in Ecuador,

Carolina Buñay-Morocho1, Pablo Álvarez1, Daniel Zurita1

  • 1Universidad Internacional del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador.

Cadernos De Saude Publica
|December 11, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Avoidable hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in children under five increased overall, with significant rises in respiratory and skin infections. Projections show ACSCs will remain a substantial proportion of discharges, highlighting primary care needs.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Services Research
  • Pediatric Health

Background:

  • Ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) serve as key indicators of primary healthcare quality and care coordination effectiveness.
  • Understanding trends in pediatric ACSC hospitalizations is crucial for assessing and improving health system performance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the proportion and trends of hospital discharges for ACSCs in children under five years old in Ecuador from 2000 to 2023.
  • To project future ACSC hospitalization rates through 2026.
  • To compare standardized ACSC hospitalization rates across different cantons.

Main Methods:

  • Ecologic time-series analysis of national hospital discharge data (2000-2023) for 20 defined ACSCs.
  • Joinpoint regression for estimating annual percentage changes and Prophet package for forecasting.
  • Standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs) calculated using census data (2001, 2010, 2022) to compare cantonal rates.

Main Results:

  • ACSCs constituted 26.6% of all pediatric hospital discharges between 2000 and 2023.
  • Overall ACSC rates increased by 2% annually, with significant increases in respiratory diseases (6.8%), urinary infections (6.4%), and skin infections (4.2%). Gastrointestinal diseases decreased by 1.9% annually.
  • Projections indicate ACSCs may account for 20.3% of discharges by 2026. Over 5% of cantons consistently showed higher-than-expected SMRs.

Conclusions:

  • Rising ACSC rates, particularly in the early 2000s, correlate with economic factors and healthcare investment levels.
  • The observed decline during the COVID-19 pandemic warrants further investigation.
  • Strengthening primary healthcare services and public health planning is essential to reduce avoidable pediatric hospitalizations.

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