Unlocking cinnamon export success: Key determinants from the world's top five producers.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• International Trade

Background:

• Cinnamon export income (CEI) is influenced by various economic and agricultural factors.
• Previous literature suggests production volume (PV), domestic consumption (DC), exchange rate (ER), and cultivated land area (CLA) are key determinants of CEI.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and analyze the factors affecting cinnamon export income (CEI) in five major exporting countries: China, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Vietnam.
• To examine the impact of PV, DC, ER, and CLA on CEI for the period 1992-2022.

Main Methods:

• Utilized secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank.
• Applied Simple Linear Regression models to analyze the relationship between identified factors and CEI.

Main Results:

• Production volume (PV) negatively impacts CEI in China, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, but positively in Indonesia and Madagascar.
• Domestic consumption (DC) has a positive impact in Sri Lanka, but negative in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Madagascar.
• Exchange rate (ER) positively affects CEI in Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, while negatively impacting Indonesia and China.
• Cultivated land area (CLA) positively influences CEI in China, Vietnam, and Madagascar, but negatively in Sri Lanka and Indonesia.

Conclusions:

• The study provides country-specific insights into factors affecting cinnamon export income.
• Findings can guide policymakers and industry professionals in developing strategies to boost cinnamon export income and practices.
• Addresses research gaps, supporting sustainable growth and competitiveness in the cinnamon sector.