Forecasting turbulence: Evidence of affective projection biases in momentary predictive fluctuations using dynamic...

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Clinical Psychology
• Affective Science

Background:

• Affective forecasting influences belief formation and behavior.
• Hopelessness is a significant suicide risk factor.
• Temporal relationships between hopelessness and negative affect (NA) may involve biased estimations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the temporal relationships between hopelessness and negative affect (NA) using ecological momentary assessment (EMA) and Dynamic Structural Equation Modelling (DSEM).
• To investigate whether hopelessness or NA predict subsequent states of the other.
• To explore the association between trait and state hopelessness and momentary suicide ideation (SI).

Main Methods:

• 175 undergraduate students completed baseline questionnaires and 10 days of EMA (5 prompts/day).
• Measures included hopelessness, five NA indicators (anger, stress, sadness, worry, anxiety), and momentary SI.
• Data were analyzed using linear mixed models (LMM), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and DSEM.

Main Results:

• NA trajectories showed quadratic time trends.
• DSEM revealed strong concurrent associations between hopelessness and NA (β=0.46, p<.001).
• Modest inertia was observed for NA (AR[1]=0.25) and hopelessness (AR[1]=0.09).
• A small cross-lagged effect of NA predicting future hopelessness (Lag[1]=0.08, p=.016) was found, but not vice versa.
• Trait hopelessness predicted baseline SI (β=0.997, p<.001), and state hopelessness predicted momentary SI (β=0.231, p=.001).

Conclusions:

• Concurrent associations between hopelessness and NA are strong, consistent with projection bias.
• Lagged effects were minimal, indicating hopelessness does not reliably predict future NA.
• Robust links between hopelessness (trait and state) and SI underscore clinical relevance.
• Findings suggest interventions targeting affective reactivity and variability are warranted.