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Spatiotemporal patterns of asthma in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis.
Tsheten Tsheten1,2, Dan Château3, Erin Walsh3
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia tsheten.tsheten@anu.edu.au.
BMJ Open
|December 12, 2025
Summary
Asthma rates in Bhutan are higher in older individuals and females. Rainfall, maximum temperature, NDVI, and PM2.5 levels are linked to increased asthma notifications, with spatial clusters in the southeast.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Asthma is a chronic respiratory disease requiring continuous management.
- This study examines asthma notification patterns in Bhutan.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate spatial and temporal asthma patterns in Bhutan.
- To identify demographic, meteorological, and environmental drivers of asthma.
- To inform targeted public health interventions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized monthly asthma notification data (2016-2022) from the Bhutan Ministry of Health.
- Incorporated climatic data, NDVI, and PM2.5 levels.
- Applied a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model for spatial analysis.
Main Results:
- Identified higher asthma notification rates in individuals over 14 years and females.
- Found positive associations between asthma notifications and rainfall, maximum temperature, NDVI, and PM2.5.
- Detected high-risk asthma clusters in southern and southeastern Bhutan.
Conclusions:
- Environmental factors and spatial clusters significantly influence asthma notifications in Bhutan.
- Findings can guide resource allocation for effective asthma control programs.
- Targeted interventions based on identified risk factors are recommended.
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