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Evaluating multi-source precipitation data for streamflow simulation using the SWAT model in the Alpine Manas River
Li Tan1, Chanjuan Zan2,3, Tie Liu4
1School of Geophysics, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, China.
Scientific Reports
|December 15, 2025
Summary
Evaluating four precipitation products (CMFD, MSWEP, ERA5-LAND, IMERG) in Xinjiang
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Remote Sensing
- Climate Science
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Precipitation product applicability varies regionally due to topography and climate.
- Accurate precipitation data is crucial for hydrological modeling in cold, alpine basins.
- Understanding multi-source precipitation product performance is key to improving model accuracy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the accuracy of four precipitation products (CMFD, MSWEP, ERA5-LAND, IMERG) in arid Xinjiang.
- To assess the suitability of these products for streamflow simulation in the alpine Manas River Basin.
- To provide references for hydrological modeling and water resource management in data-scarce alpine regions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized comprehensive indexes for precipitation magnitude and event detection.
- Employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for streamflow simulations.
- Analyzed discrepancies and performance across different seasons and intensity levels.
Main Results:
- All products showed consistent intra-annual patterns but significant summer discrepancies.
- IMERG underestimated monthly totals but overestimated in July-August; ERA5-Land showed substantial overestimation.
- CMFD demonstrated optimal precipitation performance; MSWEP-based streamflow simulations yielded the best results (NSE > 0.65, PBIAS < 15%).
Conclusions:
- CMFD offers the best overall precipitation accuracy, while MSWEP is most suitable for streamflow simulation in the Manas River Basin.
- ERA5-LAND and CMFD resulted in consistent streamflow overestimation.
- The study provides valuable insights for selecting precipitation data in data-scarce alpine environments.
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