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Near-term climate extremes in Iran based on compound hazards analysis.
Narges Asadi-RahimBeygi1, Abbas Mofidi2, Azar Zarrin1
1Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, 9177948974, Iran.
Scientific Reports
|December 15, 2025
Summary
Iran faces increasing climate extremes like heat waves and droughts. Near-term forecasts show a rise in high-risk areas, necessitating urgent adaptation planning for these weather and climate hazards.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Environmental Science
- Extreme Weather Event Analysis
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background:
- Iran, situated in arid and semi-arid zones, experiences significant weather and climate extremes.
- Recent years have highlighted the vulnerability of Iran to climate-related hazards.
- Understanding these extremes is crucial for national risk assessment and adaptation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate climate-related hazards associated with precipitation and temperature in Iran.
- To analyze compounding climate-related hazards using the Near-term Climate Prediction (NTCP) project.
- To assess the severity and importance of weather and climate extremes during hindcast and forecast periods.
Main Methods:
- Utilized CMIP6-DCPP models to simulate climate extremes across Iran.
- Integrated ten climate extreme indices including heavy precipitation, heat wave, cold wave, and drought indices (SPEI-12).
- Analyzed data for the Hindcast period (1991-2019) and Forecast period (2023-2028).
Main Results:
- Projected significant increases in drought frequency and heat wave events nationwide.
- Indicated a shift in precipitation patterns: increased heavy precipitation in Zagros Mountains and southwest, with more frequent but less intense droughts.
- Forecasted an increase in high-risk climate hazard areas, expanding to over 36% of Iran's total area by 2028.
Conclusions:
- Iran is projected to experience a significant shift in climate risk distribution towards higher-risk areas.
- Urgent adaptation planning is necessary, particularly in western, southern Zagros, and eastern regions facing compound climate hazards.
- Identified multi-hazard hotspots are spatially robust, emphasizing the need for targeted climate resilience strategies.
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