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A niche-based framework for assessing invasion risks in related pest species with a case study
Yan-Jing Zhang1, Si Qin2, Mu-Lan Ji1
1Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Biosafety, Nanjing 210042, China.
Iscience
|December 16, 2025
Summary
The invasive pest Carpomya incompleta poses a significant invasion risk to agricultural habitats occupied by C. vesuviana. Our predictive framework confirms this risk is high and persistent under future climate scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Invasive Species Biology
- Agricultural Entomology
Background:
- Invasive pests pose significant threats to global agriculture.
- The invasion risks of non-invasive but related species remain understudied.
- Understanding ecological niche overlap is crucial for predicting invasion pathways.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the invasion risk of Carpomya incompleta into the habitats of its congeneric pest, Carpomya vesuviana.
- To develop and apply a predictive framework for evaluating invasion risks of understudied species.
- To quantify niche overlap and predict climate-persistent invasion risks.
Main Methods:
- Integrated species distribution modeling (biomod2), niche analysis, and multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS).
- Identified environmentally host-coupled zones (EHCZs), dispersal simulation zones (DSZs), and synergistic hazard zones (SHZs).
- Quantified niche overlaps between C. incompleta and C. vesuviana under current and future climate scenarios (SSP585).
Main Results:
- Significant niche consistency was confirmed between C. incompleta's DSZs and its potential distribution (Schoener's D = 0.66).
- High niche overlap was observed between C. incompleta and C. vesuviana (D = 0.62), persisting under future climate change (D = 0.663).
- The framework accurately captured C. incompleta's ecological requirements and invasion potential.
Conclusions:
- Carpomya incompleta presents a high, climate-persistent invasion risk into habitats occupied by Carpomya vesuviana.
- The developed framework serves as an effective predictive tool for early warning and biosecurity planning against invasive species.
- This study highlights the importance of assessing risks from related non-invasive species to enhance agricultural biosecurity.
