A niche-based framework for assessing invasion risks in related pest species with a case study

Invasive pests threaten agriculture, yet risks from related non-invasive species are understudied. We constructed a framework integrating species distribution models (biomod2), niche analysis, and multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) to assess the invasion risk of Carpomya incompleta into habitats of its congeneric quarantine pest, C. vesuviana. We identified C. incompleta's environmentally host-coupled zones (EHCZs), dispersal simulation zones (DSZs), and synergistic hazard zones (SHZs) with C. vesuviana, and quantified niche overlaps between C. incompleta's DSZs and its potential habitats, plus between DSZs and C. vesuviana's habitats under future climate scenarios. Results confirmed significant niche consistency between C. incompleta's DSZs and its potential distribution (Schoener's D = 0.66). High niche overlap existed between both species (D = 0.62), persisting under SSP585 (D = 0.663). The framework effectively captures C. incompleta's ecological requirements, confirming its high, climate-persistent invasion risk into C. vesuviana's habitats, providing a predictive tool for early warning and biosecurity planning.