Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Population Dynamics

Background:

• Predicting biodiversity loss under global change is critical.
• Linking climate variables to vital rates for population models is complex, with varied approaches.
• Lack of consensus on best practices hinders accurate ecological forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• Provide a practical guide for linking vital rates to climate data.
• Establish best practices for modeling climate-demographic relationships.
• Improve inference and projection of population dynamics under climate change.

Main Methods:

• Describe sources of demographic and climate data for population models.
• Detail best practices for modeling vital rates in relation to climate.
• Highlight insights from mechanistic and phenomenological models.

Main Results:

• Outlines a framework for connecting climate data to population vital rates.
• Identifies challenges in predicting population persistence due to climate uncertainty.
• Suggests methods for robust forecasting of population dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Emphasizes the need for standardized methods in climate-demographic modeling.
• Recommends building a research field for robust population persistence forecasts.
• Highlights opportunities for cross-species synthesis in ecological research.