Prognostic value of lipoprotein(a) in a primary prevention ambulatory cohort

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a novel biomarker for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prediction. Yet, given the scarcity in high-quality evidence, its use in routine primary prevention screening is lacking. For this reason, we aimed to assess Lp(a) prognostic utility during routine screening.

A retrospective cohort of adults with available Lp(a) measurement, taken during a screening program (2008-2024) in a tertiary care center. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was the study primary outcome. The optimal Lp(a) threshold was evaluated using spline curve analysis and validated by Cox regression models adjusted for clinical and laboratory covariates. Subgroup analyses were performed in patients with SCORE2 and PCE data.

3052 people were included with a median (IQR) follow-up of 6.4 (3.5-12) years. Lp(a) threshold of 50 mg/dL was identified as a risk inflection point. High Lp(a) (> 50 mg/dL) was associated with increased MACE risk, independent of clinical data (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.10-2.17, p = 0.011) or different laboratory variables (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.07-2.46). High Lp(a) remained a predictor for MACE in models incorporating the SCORE2 and PCE scores, and its incorporation into these scores improved their performance in high-risk patients. In people with cardiovascular comorbidities, the optimal Lp(a) threshold for MACE prediction was 61 mg/dL, while it was 48.4 mg/dL in those without (n = 2778).

In a large ambulatory and mostly healthy cohort, Lp(a) showed a strong predictive utility for cardiovascular events. These findings support the integration of Lp(a) into primary cardiovascular risk assessment and role in guiding emerging targeted therapies.