Understanding the mechanisms of infodemics: Equation-based vs. agent-based models

Area of Science:

• Computational epidemiology
• Network science
• Public health modeling

Background:

• Digital communication accelerates the spread of misinformation and disinformation, impacting public health and policy.
• Understanding these propagation mechanisms is crucial, especially during global health crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Traditional equation-based models (EBMs) often overlook crucial psycho-social factors and communication network structures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel enhanced agent-based model (ABM) integrating psycho-social factors and communication networks to study misinformation and disinformation diffusion.
• To compare the performance of enhanced ABMs, simple ABMs, and EBMs in modeling infodemic dynamics.
• To evaluate model fit using real-world data on vaccine acceptance.

Main Methods:

• Developed an enhanced agent-based model (ABM) incorporating psycho-social elements and network structures.
• Developed a simple ABM to emulate EBM structures for comparative analysis.
• Conducted 11,110 experiments comparing ABMs and EBMs across parameter ranges.
• Utilized a multi-objective optimization procedure to fit models to 36 weeks of real-world vaccine acceptance data.

Main Results:

• A weak overall equivalence was found between ABMs and EBMs, with similar outcomes under specific conditions.
• The enhanced ABM demonstrated a significantly better fit to real-world infodemic data (r=0.99, NRMSE=0.055) compared to EBMs (r=0.78, NRMSE=0.418) and simple ABMs (r=0.95, NRMSE=0.103).
• Model structure critically influences the accuracy of infodemic dynamics simulation.

Conclusions:

• Agent-based models (ABMs) are more effective than equation-based models (EBMs) for capturing complex infodemic phenomena.
• Psycho-social factors and network interactions are vital components for accurate modeling of misinformation and disinformation spread.
• The enhanced ABM provides a robust framework for public health policy and communication strategies during health crises.