From 1990 to 2035: The evolving burden of mental disorders, substance use, and self-harm in young people across Asia

This study aimed to describe the burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders, and self-harm among young people in Asia from 1990 to 2021 by key demographics and to project these trends to 2035.

This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, a publicly available repository of comprehensive global health estimates maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We analyzed prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years. Trends were assessed using average annual percent change, while a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected future prevalence. Correlations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were also examined.

In 2021, the rates per 100,000 young people in Asia were 13,854 (95 % UI, 12,243-15,607) for mental disorders, 1211 (95 % UI, 960-1501) for substance use disorders, and 54 (95 % UI, 42-70) for self-harm. Mental disorder prevalence was higher in males aged 15-19 and females aged 20-24. Countries with the highest burden included the Republic of Korea, Japan, and India. SDI showed a significant positive correlation with substance use disorder prevalence. Projections to 2035 indicate an increase in mental disorders, a decrease in self-harm, and an overall decrease in substance use, although rates are expected to rise among females.

The mental health burden among young people in Asia is significant and projected to worsen. Countries should prioritize the development of evidence-based mental health services for young people.