Squeezing Tobacco Retail Density Between 2000 and 2020 an Analysis of an Australian Tobacco Sellers Register

Research indicates that high tobacco retail density is associated with smoking in children, adults, and during pregnancy. Despite this, there is limited research on retail suppression policies, or how government regulation affects tobacco outlet density over time. We examine the association between government-imposed tobacco control laws and outlet density between 2000 and 2019.

Records of outlets were obtained from the mandated tobacco licensing scheme and registered in one state of Tasmania, Australia. Trends in density, that is, retailers per 1000 people, were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Trends by retailer type were analyzed between 2010 and year-end 2019.

The highest retailer density was observed in 2002 and lowest in 2019 (from 3.2 to 1.2 retailers per 1000 people), with a mean annual percentage change (APC) of -5.1% of retailer density (CI = -5.9% to -4.3%, p > .01). A decrease in APC 7.9% density per year (CI = -9.7% to -6.0%, p < .01) was observed between 2009-2013, corresponded with changes in tobacco packaging laws and import taxes. An APC decrease of 8.9% density per year (CI = -10.7% to -7.1%, p < .01) between 2016 and 2019 corresponded with a tripling in government licensing fees. Liquor licensed premises, newsagencies, food and mixed businesses were all affected (-7.8%, -19.8%, -10.2%, -9.9% APC, respectively) with little change observed, supermarkets, tobacconists, and wholesalers from 2010 to 2019.

Tobacco tax, advertising bans, packaging laws, and increased licence fees were all associated with reduced tobacco outlet density. Supermarkets and tobacconists-large volume retailers-were minimally affected by these levers and may require direct regulation. Further research is underway to determine whether changes in tobacco retail density are associated with reduced smoking.