Agreement Between Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Models (SCORE2, Framingham, ASCVD-2013, and SCORE2-OP) in Adults...

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Geriatrics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Existing cardiovascular risk (CVR) prediction models are often developed for younger populations.
• The SCORE2-OP model was created to improve CVR estimation in adults aged 70 years and older.
• The applicability of SCORE2-OP outside Europe requires investigation due to potential over- or underestimation of CVR.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the agreement between four common CVR prediction tools and the SCORE2-OP model in older adults (≥70 years).
• To assess the concordance of Framingham, ASCVD-2013, SCORE2, and SCORE2-OP in a Colombian cohort.

Main Methods:

• Secondary analysis of the SABE Colombia study (2015) involving adults aged 70 years and older.
• Concordance assessed using Cohen's quadratically weighted kappa and Lin's concordance correlation coefficients.
• Four CVR tools (Framingham, ASCVD-2013, SCORE2, SCORE2-OP) were compared.

Main Results:

• Analysis included 586 participants aged ≥70 years.
• Fair agreement was found between SCORE2-OP and Colombian-calibrated ASCVD-2013 (kappa=0.24) and Framingham (kappa=0.22) models.
• Moderate agreement was observed between SCORE2-OP and the Colombian-calibrated SCORE2 model (kappa=0.43).

Conclusions:

• There is variable agreement between established CVR prediction models and SCORE2-OP in Colombian adults aged 70 years and older.
• The SCORE2-OP model tended to overestimate cardiovascular risk compared to nationally validated scores.
• Region-specific validation of CVR prediction models is crucial for accurate risk assessment in elderly populations.