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Determinants of life expectancy in high longevity countries: evidence from machine learning
Hong Zhang1,2, Haixiang Qiao2, Xiuping Li2
1School of Business, Jinggangshan University, Ji'an, China.
Frontiers in Public Health
|December 18, 2025
Summary
Economic growth (GDP), health spending, and education significantly boost life expectancy (LEX). Environmental factors like CO₂ emissions and internet use have minimal impact, highlighting key drivers for public health policy.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Environmental Science
- Economics
Background:
- Life expectancy (LEX) is a key indicator for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3: Good Health and Well-Being.
- Understanding LEX determinants is crucial for global health policy and interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the multifaceted determinants of life expectancy (LEX).
- To analyze environmental, economic, social, and institutional factors influencing LEX.
Main Methods:
- Utilized panel data from top 20 high-LEX countries (2001-2023).
- Employed traditional econometrics (PMG, fixed effects, FMOLS) and machine learning (Gradient Boosting, Random Forest).
Main Results:
- CO₂ emissions negatively impact LEX; GDP, health expenditure, education, internet use, rule of law, government effectiveness, and R&D positively influence LEX.
- GDP, health expenditure, and education are the strongest predictors of LEX.
- Gradient Boosting demonstrated superior predictive performance over Random Forest.
Conclusions:
- Economic and social factors, particularly GDP, health expenditure, and education, are paramount for enhancing life expectancy.
- Policy interventions should prioritize these key drivers for improving population health and well-being.
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