Measuring and Forecasting the Healthy Eating Index in Iran: 1991-2027

Compliance with food-based dietary guidelines, as measured by the Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2015), and an enhancement in its score have been linked to a reduction in mortality risk and the prevalence of chronic diseases. The objective of this study was to compute and scrutinize the HEI for Iran over the preceding 30 years and to project the anticipated index for the forthcoming 7 years.

This research is a repeated cross-sectional study on 665254 Household. Through the application of an array of statistical and nutritional methodologies, we have successfully transformed the Household Income-Expenditure Survey (HIES) questionnaire data, spanning from 1991 to 2020 for the Iranian population, into meaningful household food consumption data. The data analysis was executed using STATA v.17.

We found a growing trend in HEIs until 2017, which dropped sharply in the following years. The average HEI at the national level was estimated to be 48.39 ± 10.25 over 30 years. The lowest and highest indices were in Sistan and Baluchistan Province (41.23 ± 7.56) and Qom Province (57.73 ± 11.27). The highest average energy intake was in the year 2005 (2695.33 ± 808.31 Kcal).

The utilization of HIES data in this study serves as a proxy for household consumption values. We observed a commendable trend in the HEI up until 2017. However, post 2018, the trend exhibited a decline, potentially attributable to multiple factors. We strongly recommend a regular and strategic review of food and nutrition policies, particularly during crises, to circumvent undesirable outcomes.