The interplay of personality functioning and affect-event dynamics in predicting future impairment and depression: A...

Since the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition, and the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases introduced dimensional assessment of personality functioning (PF), PF impairments have been linked to transdiagnostic mental-health risk factors. Using ecological momentary assessment data from 16,038 mental health app users, we tested whether baseline PF impairment, affect-event dynamics, and depression predict future PF impairment and depression severity, hypothesizing a central role of PF. In the first month, users completed 69.3 mood (range 31-142) and 63.3 event assessments (25-133) on average. Dynamic structural equation models linked baseline depression to lower concurrent and cross-lagged mood-positive event links, lower inertia, and reduced likelihood of positive events. In contrast, baseline PF impairment related to persistence, emotional impact, and volatility of interpersonal conflict and greater mood instability. Over 1-year follow-up (N = 1,464, M = 1,236 assessments per user), future PF impairment and depression were predicted by weaker concurrent mood-positive event links, lower volatility of positive events, and baseline average mood/events. Among affect-event dynamics, cross-lagged effects of interpersonal conflicts on mood explained the highest unique variance in future PF impairment (ΔR2 = 5.9%). Baseline PF showed the strongest overall predictive utility (ΔR2 = 19.5%), followed by baseline depression (ΔR2 = 11.9%); PF explained more variance in future depression than vice versa. PF assessment may inform duration, goals, and strategies of treatments beyond those focused on personality disorders. Results are interpreted considering limitations, particularly the single-method design. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).